Jasons 2019 NFL picks Album through Week 6: 4-4 ATS, 3-2 Totals
Imagine if we told you the Minnesota Vikings were the fourth-best team in the NFL? Hey, dont look at usFootball Outsiders have Minnesota rated No. 4 in DVOA (No. 5 crime, No. 6 shield, No. 14 special teams) heading into Week 7. Oh, and all of that moaning over QB Kirk Cousins doesnt hold water. Hes No. 8 overall in passing DVOA, three spots better than Aaron Rodgers. Numbers dont lie.
Speaking of figures, the under-appreciated Vikings (4-2 SU and ATS) might have some betting value as 1-point road faves for Sundays game against the Detroit Lions (2-2-1 SU, 4-1 ATS). However, both these North teams are rewarding thus far. We may get more value in thebelow now that the complete has moved from 44 to as high as 46 on the NFL likelihood board.
Lets make sure we are on the right track by Taking a Look at the projections, before we break down our options:
FiveThirtyEight: Minnesota –two
Jeff Sagarin: Minnesota –5.99, 44.76 complete
As we guessed. If you go for Nate Silvers crew, there is gain margin to utilize for the spread, which is standard to get an NFL regular-season match. Jeff Sagarins figures are more bullish on Minnesota; we are quoting his eigenvector disperse, but his recent disperse for your Vikes is –2.94, that still gets us near this 2-point margin we are searching for. Note that were very close to the magic number 3 too.
Obviously, if we are serious about investing, we will need to jump on these opening lines when theyre in our favor. The Vikings started before the sharps gobbled up them — but only in $58 a pop up, based on the enlarged consensus accounts. Small perimeter, small bet.
That line move on the complete is interesting. Team scoring is down from 23.3 points per game last year to 22.4, and thebelow is 49-43 (53.3 percent) round the league, so auto-betting theover for your NFL selections doesnt hold water right today — unless youre convinced therell be some regression to the mean, perhaps in the kicking game.
Additionally, the matchup on the floor factors toward a lower scoring match. The Lions rank No. 14 total in DVOA, however just No. 21 on crime in contrast to No. 12 on protection (and moment on special teams). Then you have all that running across the Vikings do; theyre fourth in efforts this season.
Were looking at a window between the projections and the real odds when it comes to that complete, though. Lets follow the sharps, put Minnesota in our selections for a sum, and as always, will the prolate spheroid be with you.
Free NFL Pick: Vikings –1 (–105) at 5Dimes
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