Basketball and gambling have more in common than you may think. In order to be successful at pursuit, it is helpful to have an established system. In the case of basketball, obtaining a reliable offensive scheme that you’re able to roll out each game regardless of the matchup provides you a leg-up. Think Mike D’Antoni’s free-flowing space-and-pace assault or Jerry Sloan’s nearly unbeatable pick-and-roll offense in the 1980s and 90s.
If it comes to gambling, you can gain the exact same sort of benefit by having a closely defined set of rules that you can use to every single game irrespective of who is on the court.
Luckily, you don’t need to create your own betting system from scratch. There are already several recognized strategies that you can try on for size when you lay down wagers on your favourite teams, and there is no rule against pilfering from the playbooks of those who arrived before you. We have included some of the most reliable systems and money-management approaches below, together with insights about the best way to use them. When combined with an understanding of the game, these systems can help turn rookie betters into all-stars.
The High Totals System
Few strategies are easier to understand and use than the High Totals System made by Allen Moody, a sports-betting professional and the author of Getting a Winning Gambler and Sports Betting Basics. Moody found that sportsbooks frequently underestimate game levels for NBA non-conference games, and started taking the over on all games using an over/under of 220 total points. It’s a simple strategy, but it paid off handsomely as he was right 63.5percent of time for many games meeting that standards from 2004-05 to 2008-09.
Those kinds of games have been rarities a decade ago, but they are getting more common now as groups push the speed and drain more three-pointers. Back in 2004-05, NBA teams scored a mean of 97.2 points per match. That number jumped to 100.0 in 2008-09 and rose all the way to 105.6 in 2016-17. Sportsbooks have gotten savvy to this tendency, but there’s still worth to be found by taking the over in matches with especially high total-point projections.
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