Pie in the Sky Win Rates
Since NFL betting has grown, so has the tout business. A tout is somebody who gets paid to help a bettor make money betting the NFL. Some are legitimate handicappers. An overwhelming majority aren’t.
The first means to safeguard yourself from a person who is not would be to rule out anybody who claims to win 75 or 80 percent against the point spread. Just remember that: anybody who reasonably predicted to win 80 of the next 100 bets could turn $1,000 to $15 billion by appropriate proportional betting–all in one season!
A sensible long-term win percent to get a proficient handicapper will maintain the 55–60 percent range. I know of no service which has done better than roughly 60 percent over a variety of seasons. And people that always reach 60 percent are very few.
Another warning sign of a rip-off tout is multiple providers within one service. Touts create numerous providers in order that they can always truthfully claim to have won. By way of example, a tout may function an early-week newsletter providing choices on each game along with a weekend telephone service giving selections according to the”latest inside info.” Then the tout will switch sides on a match due to”new” information. In this manner, the tout can constantly honestly promote his service, meaning among his solutions, had the winner of this game.
Other sports providers give out selections on 900 numbers with a charge-per-call. They pad the bill by offering only 1 selection and telling you to call back in ten minutes for one more choice –and another charge.
Other providers market”lock games,” significance matches which can’t lose. How they could sell such games is beyond me. Whoever has watched sports for about a month understands that the difference between winning and losing against the spread can be infinitesimally small. In the NFL, a match will often be turned by one play or punishment call. The best anybody can do in handicapping is come up with a negative that has a slightly better than 60 percent probability of covering the spread. This still means that nearly four times in ten the game will lose–which makes any talk of a lock whole nonsense.
A number of the more laughable tout ads are the ones which are printed a month or more beforehand. These are usually found in NFL gambling programmes. The advertisements will claim that this service had winners in matches that couldn’t have been played when the ads were composed!
In conclusion, the sole touts you should consider using are people who discuss the very long haul and realistic win percentages.
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