This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight PPV card in Phoenix, Arizona. This is the very first ever UFC on big ESPN card and DK has some decent contests for us for this particular Sunday card. The main GPP is a $10 buy-in and $20k belongs to 1st place, also there’ll be $100k in total prizes. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that final competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first location cost and $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 entries that qualify. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers therefore be cautious chasing those too hard. I’ll likely stick to the top GPP this week and throw 50 or so entries at that $20k decoration. I’ll also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a fantastic amount of drama into cash games. With that said, let’s get to some plays I enjoy as well as my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Vicente Luque ($9,400)
Vicente Luque is the safest play on the slate, in my view. I believe he’ll be the fighter anywhere this battle goes, and he must predominate. I like locking that win in my cash match and I think he has a fantastic shot at getting 10x his $9.4k salary. I really do expect him to become hot in tournaments so in the event that you want to fade the ownership there and attempt to be more contrarian, I’d definitely need some Luque investment in cash games. Barberena is tough so he could continue all 3 rounds and if he can then Luque might only score from the 80s and that will not win any GPPs. But, we can work with an ~80-point win in cash games because we only have to conquer half the area unlike those tournaments.
GPP play of the week — Cain Velasquez ($9,000)
Cain Velasquez is my GPP play of the week due to the chances. A bit over a week ago he had been a -255 favorite and that’s what led to his elevated $95 price tag. Now he’s just -155 and the value is on Ngannou in his $7.2k price label. I expect Ngannou are the greatest owned fighter on the card and if Cain wins then he will kill off close to half the field. Also, if Cain wins he’s likely scoring over 100-points. I anticipate his ownership to go down the more his gambling line decreases and that’s what makes him a great GPP play. He does have a 0-point floor, therefore that I don’t care for him as much in money game, however for GPPs we need boom or float to attempt to reach this 1st place prize.
Underdog play of this week — Andre Fili ($7,400)
Andre Fili is my favorite dog of this week. He’s $1,400 cheaper than Myles Jury on DraftKings, but he’s just a +125 underdog. I think he has a fantastic shot of winning this battle and I am choosing him to get his hands raised. I anticipate this to be a very close fight, but I believe Fili will probably be the fighter striking in the greater rate and that is precisely what I believe gets it done for him to the judges’ scorecards. I really don’t see Fili with 100+ stage upside down but we don’t really need that at his $7.4k price label. I think he has a good shot at getting at least 10x, so he’s playable in most formats for me.
Fade of this week — Andrea Lee ($8,900)
Andrea Lee is my fade of this week. Not because I think she will lose, but I think have difficulty seeing her about the 20k lineup in her salary. I enjoy the $9k range a great deal greater than her and all of them have higher ceilings using their grappling-based game plans. Andrea Lee scored well in her UFC introduction, but that is because she did utilize grappling there. I don’t see her doing that in this match because I presume Evans-Smith has the edge on the floor and she should be the one looking for takedowns. If Lee will win this battle, then she’s going to need to get it done on the feet and I don’t see her with a high ceiling with no finish. The only reason to utilize her is because she is going to be super low owned, and it’ll make your lineup , but I wouldn’t advise it.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight about the card and give my complete DraftKings evaluation, as well as all my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link as well. I am 57-34 for +188.13un (+$18,813) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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