There’s a lot of cash to be won this week DraftKings including a top prize of $30k in the primary tournament. I will be going thicker than normal this week chasing the big GPP prizes, and I will play less cash games than normal. Here is actually the first time we’ve seen a $30k top prize, therefore I believe it’s worth chasing if you’ve got the bankroll to get it.
We did lose the co-main occasion with Max Holloway pulling out of this struggle against Brian Ortega, thus we are now down to 11 fights and we ought to observe a lot of ties on this card together with the more popular lineups. If you are pursuing that $30K then you will want to try and be a bit different with your lineup so that you can separate yourself from the rest of the field. That said, let us get into a few plays I enjoy in addition to my fade of this week.
Cash Game play of the week — Paul Felder ($7,400)
The DK pricing on this fight is way off from the betting line. On DK, Felder is 1,400 less than his opponent, Mike Perry. On the gambling line, Felder is the -150 favorite. That’s just too much line value to pass on in money games which makes Felder that the”free square” this week. Even when he loses this battle, he must be so highly owned that it won’t even hurt your lineup in cash games. In GPP’s, Felder will be one of the greatest owned fighters on the card and if he loses there then it may kill your lineup, so maybe think about preventing the chalk there in the event that you can. However, with that crazy line value we’re getting here, Paul Felder is the easy choice for the money game play of this week.
GPP play of this week — Mike Perry ($8,800)
Ok, I know this sounds a bit weird since I literally just chose Paul Felder as my money play of this week, but hear me out. In cash games, we do not care about possession. In case Felder is 90% owned in cash games, then it will not hurt your lineup since only 10% of lineups did not have him and you only need to be top ~50 percent of the area to cash in money games. In GPPs, I’m guessing Felder will be over 50% owned. If he loses, that is half of the area that is dead with no shot at winning 1st place.
Mike Perry on the other hand will be less than 20% owned, and closer to 10% just because of this mispriced line. If Felder loses and kills off 50% of lineups, then you get a win using the low owned guy to put you in a far better place of a Royal 1st place win and possibly hitting $30k. Perry has the capability to KO anybody and Paul Felder is carrying this fight on short notice in a weight class above his division. Can it shock you much if Perry could KO him? In GPPs, we are interested in finding that boom or bust drama and that is Mike Perry this week making him my GPP play of this week.
Underdog drama of this week — Anthony Pettis ($7,600)
Anthony Pettis would have been a -500 favorite over Michael Chiesa if this struggle happened 5 decades ago, but now we get a fading Pettis as a underdog and $1,000 cheaper than Chiesa on DraftKings. I believe Pettis can keep this battle standing for most the fight and that should give him a huge advantage. He is also dangerous on the floor himself and when he is taken down I believe he is going to have the ability to get up if he is not able to acquire a entry of his own. In case Pettis can acquire a determination then I presume he will pay off his DK price tag and is going to be a fantastic underdog to utilize so you can conserve salary on your lineups. I may even find this battle ending early from Pettis falling Chiesa with a body kick and if that happens he will likely be on the winning lineup when he can make it happen in round 1.
Fade of the week — Rafael Assuncao ($9,100)
At $9.1k, I have zero interest in Assuncao this weekend. I really do think he wins the struggle, but I don’t find him paying off that large price . He does not fight at a hefty rate and he has not gotten a takedown in his last 4 wins and the ground is where he will have his biggest edge in this matchup. In those last 4 wins, Assuncao has not scored over 78 DK points and in his salary this week I want at least 91 points from him to pay that much. I would rather cover the men higher priced compared to Assuncao, or even go down to Vannata or even Miocic. I will have at least 20 lineups this weekend and Assuncao will probably be in 0 of these, which makes him my fade of this week.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle about the card and provide my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all of my pick predictions, you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
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